COVID-19 cases in Reading are predicted to rise in the coming weeks, but will remain lower than several Berkshire areas according to a ‘Covid calculator’.
The tool predicts which parts of the country have the greatest probability of seeing coronavirus cases rise above 50 per 100,000, which it classes as a ‘hotspot.’
Although Reading is not predicted to become a hotspot area in the near future, surrounding towns Wokingham and all of West Berkshire have been picked up as high-risk areas for their estimated increase in cases.
Currently, Reading sits in the ’15 – 25 per cent’ category in terms of chances of becoming a hotspot location.
In just a few days from now though (Monday, October 12), the map shows Reading as being a 25 – 50 per cent area.
West Berkshire and Wokingham are both set to become hotspots in this time, becoming 50 – 75 per cent locations by next week.
The map also shows the change of infection rates across the country, and identifies Reading as an ‘increasing’ area.
Towns are categorised as either increasing, likely increasing, direction unclear, likely decreasing and decreasing.
Very few areas in the country have been deemed as anything other than increasing.
The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to reported a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.
The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.
It comes as COVID cases continue to rise across the country.
As of Monday (October 5), Public Health England figures show that 1,016 people had been confirmed as testing positive for Covid-19 in Reading, up from 986 the same time on Friday.
The rate of infection in Reading now stands at 628 cases per 100,000 people, far lower than the England average of 784.